Latest Dire Climate Assessment: “Future of Humanity Hangs in the Balance”
Trends continue heading in wrong direction and human civilization is undoubtedly facing a “global emergency,” scientists warn.
A new warning from top climate scientists and experts may be among the starkest yet – that the world is “on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster” and faces a “dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence.”
The 2024 “state of the climate” report, published this week in the journal BioScience, confirms yet again the planetary peril that more people are tragically starting to directly experience as fossil fuel-driven global heating manifests through an onslaught of horrific floods, fires, storms, lethal heatwaves and other extreme weather impacts. These climate-intensified disasters continue to take a devastating toll around the globe. Just two weeks after Hurricane Helene ravaged the US southeast, killing more than 230 people, another major hurricane (Milton) again made landfall in Florida. Meanwhile, “unprecedented” flash flooding in Nepal has taken over 200 lives. And 2023 – so far the hottest year in recorded history – saw more record-shattering climate extremes and a mind-boggling and terrible string of extreme weather events that shocked even climate scientists.
“The surge in yearly climate disasters shows we are in a major crisis,” the new report explains, “with worse to come if we continue with business as usual.”
Whether this crisis will be painful yet manageable, or whether it will spiral out of control to truly catastrophic proportions that risks societal collapse, really comes down to the actions and decisions made now and in the near-term years ahead, experts say.
“Today, more than ever, our actions matter for the stable climate system that has supported us for thousands of years,” scientists write in the report, emphasizing that “the future of humanity hangs in the balance.”
These types of statements and urgent clarion calls for climate action have been coming from the scientific community for years, warning humanity about the breakdown of Earth’s life support systems. The name of this publication, One Earth Now, attempts to crystalize the message that we only have one life-sustaining planet Earth and that transformative action is needed now. That is what the science is telling us, and honest and informative journalism on climate should always be grounded in science and in conveying reality and truth, as uncomfortable or inconvenient as it may be.
“With the increasingly undeniable effects of climate change, a dire assessment is an honest assessment,” scientists authoring the 2024 state of the climate report say. Their intention is not to scare people into paralysis but to communicate the growing climatic threats facing our society in the clearest terms possible. “Our goal is to provide clear, evidence-based insights that inspire informed and bold responses from citizens to researchers and world leaders,” they write.
And yet, while scientists have been trying to alert the public and have been issuing warnings for decades now, the requisite societal response and policies to sufficiently confront the problem have been lacking, in no small part due to the massive disinformation and delay campaigns waged by fossil fuel and related industry interests and enablers. The report calls out this “stiff resistance from those benefiting financially from the current fossil-fuel based system” as a key reason there has been so little progress on the climate front.
“It is frustrating as a scientist to be continuing to put out the calls for action and not see policies put in place,” William J. Ripple, a distinguished professor of ecology at Oregon State University and lead author of the report, told me. “I’m not sure what it will take to get major change.”
The report finds that 25 out of 35 planetary ‘vital signs’ are at record levels and trends overall are headed in the wrong direction. These include physical climate system indicators like greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels, and ocean heat and acidity as well as societal factors or pressures contributing to climate breakdown such as fossil fuel subsidies, world GDP growth and human population. The assessment also includes several positive signals such as solar and wind energy consumption (37 exajoules per year) and total institutional assets divested from fossil fuels (over $40 trillion USD) – both at record highs.
“We did notice a couple of things that were positive. Wind and solar energy increased substantially since last year, and deforestation in the Amazon decreased,” Ripple said.
But the otherwise alarming trends far outweigh these few encouraging signs. The danger compounds when considering the possibility of breaching what Earth system scientists call “tipping points” or thresholds that can trigger “major and irreversible changes in the Earth system.” Some of these tipping points involve positive or self-reinforcing feedback loops that amplify global heating. Thawing permafrost, for example, releases trapped methane gas that further warms the climate, stimulating more thawing and subsequent methane emissions. The interaction between climate tipping elements and feedback loops is complex, but essentially scientists are concerned that triggering them can result in ‘runaway’ warming beyond humans’ ability to control.
“Feedback loops and tipping points can take over and humans can’t do anything to stop them,” Ripple explained. “We need to take those into consideration and try to be responsible Earth citizens in doing what we can to avert and avoid catastrophic climate change.”
A recent peer-reviewed study examining tipping risks finds that current climate policies and pledges are insufficient to avoid substantial risk of triggering catastrophic collapses of core Earth systems. Urgently slashing greenhouse gas emissions this decade, the study emphasizes, is “critical to planetary stability.”
But this is not happening at anywhere near the scale and speed needed, and the assessments and warnings from the world’s top scientists are becoming ever graver. Just last month, climate experts at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research released an inaugural “Planetary Health Check” report – like a physical checkup you’d get from your doctor, but for the planet itself – finding that six out of nine planetary boundaries have been breached and transgression of a seventh is imminent. The boundaries indicate a safe operating space for humanity and crossing them risks permanently damaging Earth’s life support functions. As Potsdam Institute’s Johan Rockström said in a statement about the health check’s findings: “The overall diagnostic is that the patient, Planet Earth, is in critical condition.”
Climate breakdown, some experts say, is actually a symptom of a larger systemic problem or disease – humanity’s unsustainable, extractive relationship with the Earth. The 2024 state of the climate report authors refer to the problem as “ecological overshoot.”
“As pressures increase and the risk of Earth’s climate system switching to a catastrophic state rises more and more scientists have begun to research the possibility of societal collapse,” the report notes.
More scholars and environmental experts are urging the need for deep system change, pointing to what appears to be an inherent conflict between a system of unfettered capitalism and the healthy, life-sustaining systems of the planet. It’s a conflict that should be obvious to us at least conceptually.
“It’s impossible to have unlimited, continued economic growth on a finite planet,” Ripple explained.
Adopting an “ecological and post-growth economics framework that ensures social justice” are among the recommendations that he and his report co-authors put forth. Others include integrating climate change education into core school curriculums worldwide, reducing overconsumption and waste especially by the wealthy, and supporting more plant-based dietary shifts. At the top of the list of priorities should be rapidly phasing down fossil fuel use, the scientists say.
The task at this point, so late in the game, is to try to minimize the damage and shave off every additional increment of global heating, as Ripple told me.
“I think rather than just have hope, it’s really important to take action and try to avoid every fraction of a degree of additional warming we can.”